AGP Executive Report

EU Sanctions Push: The EU added crypto exchange HTX to its Russia sanctions list, targeting platforms it says help evade measures, as Brussels also moves on banks, energy and shadow-fleet pressure. Central Bank Watch: Russia’s central bank cut its 2026 growth outlook to 0–1% and lifted its inflation forecast to 6–7%, blaming fuel-price surges and supply disruptions tied to attacks on energy infrastructure. Oil Market Shock: With Iran war risks and shipping threats back in focus, Brent is again near $100-plus, while analysts warn of renewed volatility and knock-on effects for diesel and broader inflation. War Economy at Home: Ukraine says Russia is quietly cutting hospital funding and beds as wartime spending rises, worsening access to care and deepening the war’s impact on daily life. Crypto Regulation: Russia’s new crypto rules cap non-qualified investor purchases at $3,800 and set a framework for the digital ruble rollout, while Bank of Russia defends the approach. Nuclear Supply Chain: A Rosatom unit will supply tech for Germany-made nuclear fuel rods in an EDF-led venture, extending Russia’s footprint in EU nuclear inputs. Ukraine Air Defense Tech: Ukraine plans to integrate laser-based air defense into its drone countermeasures as ammunition shortages bite. Maritime Flashpoint: Iran and Russia condemned a reported Ukrainian strike on an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian, with Tehran warning the attack “cannot go unanswered.” Russia Navy Day: Putin canceled the St. Petersburg Navy Day parade again, citing strike fears, and instead addressed sailors amid heightened drone threats.

Aviation Restructuring: Rostec plans to consolidate Red Wings, SkyGates, air ambulance and leasing into a single holding under Ilyushin Finance, with Ukraine’s intelligence calling it a way to mask systemic civil-aviation stress. Sanctions & Payments: Golden Crown temporarily suspended transfers from Russia to Georgia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Azerbaijan, while Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkey remain available, with users linking the move to EU sanctions. EU Enforcement: The EU added a mechanism in its 21st package allowing member states to sell confiscated cargo from Russia’s shadow fleet, aiming to cut war funding. War Economy & Logistics: Ukraine claims long-range Caspian Sea strikes hit vessels tied to Iran’s military supply chain; separately, Russia’s diesel export ban extension reflects pressure from drone attacks on refining. Diplomacy Signals: Kremlin says it’s premature to comment on US-Ukraine air ceasefire talks, stressing responses will depend on alignment with Russian interests. Regional Security: Romania shot down a third suspected Russian drone in three days, summoning Moscow’s envoy. Cyber Risk: Proofpoint warns of a Russian espionage campaign exploiting a Zimbra “half-click” flaw via malicious emails. Business & Trade: Kazakhstan-Russia trade and digital logistics cooperation continue to expand, with corridor and direct-flight ideas back on the table.

Crypto Regulation & Banking: Sberbank is moving fast on Russia’s crypto overhaul, planning a regulated trading and custody setup with a digital depository to track ownership and process transactions outside the main blockchain, aiming to go live by Dec. 1, 2026 as the new framework takes effect from Sept. 1. Sanctions & Compliance: The EU expanded its HTX crackdown, adding Huobi Global to a transaction ban in the 21st package, while the U.S. rejected Wise’s bid for a national trust bank charter over money-laundering and terrorist-financing concerns. War’s Business Impact: Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign is hitting Russia’s logistics and retail supply chains, with Wildberries-linked warehouse fires and disruptions spilling into regional industries like Kyrgyzstan’s garment sector. Black Sea Trade Pressure: A U.S. warning to Ukraine against attacking non-Russian vessels raises a new EU energy and trade dilemma as strikes affect tanker routes tied to Kazakhstan oil exports. Central Bank & Markets: Russia’s central bank cut its key rate to 14%, with officials citing pressure from inflation and growth expectations. Russia-Kazakhstan Trade & Logistics: Putin and Tokayev highlighted near $28B trade growth and a push for digitalization and direct flights to strengthen the logistics corridor.

Central Bank Watch: Russia’s key rate was cut to 14% as the Bank of Russia signaled a more gradual easing path, while also trimming its oil-price forecast by $5/bbl and keeping inflation risks in view. Sanctions & Markets: The EU moved to monetize cargoes seized from Russia’s shadow fleet, allowing sales of detained oil and even grain—while China protested fresh EU sanctions on Chinese firms tied to Russia and retaliated with export controls on EU entities. Ukraine Strikes Deep Into Russia: Drone attacks hit a Tyumen oil refinery, sparked fires, and forced Wildberries to evacuate and suspend operations at a logistics hub in Yekaterinburg amid drone alerts; Ukraine also targeted Russian maritime and air-defense assets in the Caspian and Rostov region. War’s Business Impact: Ukraine’s “Russia’s Amazon” campaign is disrupting consumer supply chains and logistics, while Russia warns Black Sea navigation is unsafe as port and terminal activity slows. Finance & Banking: Moscow’s arbitration court moved to hold former managers of failed Master Capital vicariously liable, with potential claims exceeding 2 billion rubles. Trade Diversification: Armenia reported export shifts toward China, India and the EU as Russia tightened dairy import curbs.

EU Sanctions Push: The EU approved its 21st Russia sanctions package, extending transaction bans to crypto networks and targeting banks and oil-linked entities, including Georgia-based HTX (Huobi) without a full asset freeze. China-Russia Trade Friction: China retaliated by adding 14 European entities to export controls over Russia-related sanctions, including firms tied to drones and dual-use tech. Tariffs and Trade Politics: Trump announced forced-labor import tariffs on 60+ partners and said the US will investigate EU trade practices after EU fines against US tech giants like Google. Wildberries Under Fire: Ukrainian drones kept hitting “Russia’s Amazon,” with fires reported at multiple warehouses near St. Petersburg and beyond, raising pressure on sellers and logistics. Central Bank Watch: Russia’s central bank cut its key rate to 14% while warning inflation risks remain, and raised its 2026 key-rate forecast range. Energy Supply Strain: Ukrainian strikes and Black Sea insecurity are disrupting Russian port loading, with Novorossiysk’s Sheskharis terminal reportedly suspending tanker loading. Defense Industry Shock: A Russian missile strike near Kyiv killed 10 at a drone/defence exhibition, while Ukraine and Raytheon move toward joint Patriot interceptor production.

Monetary Policy: Russia’s central bank cut its key rate to 14% (from 14.25%) but raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 6–7%, citing fuel-price pressure from drone strikes and supply shocks tied to Wildberries. E-commerce Under Fire: Ukraine’s drones hit Wildberries warehouses again near St. Petersburg and in annexed Crimea, with fires and evacuations reported; the attacks are now a direct hit to Russia’s consumer logistics and small sellers. Business Relief: Wildberries froze loan repayments for affected merchants for three months through end-October, adding to fee and transit-charge relief after warehouse damage. Sanctions Pressure: The EU approved its 21st Russia package, targeting banks, crypto platforms, shadow-fleet-linked vessels, and parts of the energy sector; separately, the US imposed a new 12.5% forced-labor tariff on Russia. Corporate Exits: Arnest agreed to buy Reckitt’s Russian hygiene business, extending Western asset selloffs despite a reported £175m loss for Reckitt. Regional Trade: Kazakhstan and Russia opened an interregional cooperation forum in Omsk, highlighting industrial and education links.

Black Sea Shipping Under Fire: Ukraine’s FM Sybiha warned Poland that Russia’s strikes on civilian vessels and port infrastructure are threatening global food supplies, citing 28 vessel attacks between June 20 and July 20 and deadly hits including the Golden Leo corn shipment near Odesa. EU Sanctions Push: The EU agreed its 21st Russia package, expanding curbs on banks, crypto services and the shadow fleet, adding 32 banks and 218 listings overall, while Greece won a one-year LNG shipping exemption and a freeze on the oil price cap. Fuel Crisis Watch: Russia’s fuel crunch is deepening as Ukrainian drones hit refineries, with Putin calling the deficit “non-critical” even as capacity losses and repairs bite. Wildberries in the Crosshairs: Multiple fires hit Wildberries logistics hubs in Crimea and Tver after reported drone strikes, with earlier attacks across Russia’s regions leaving confirmed deaths and dozens injured. Energy Prices Jump: Brent pushed above $100 amid Red Sea/Houthi attacks and renewed US-Iran tensions, while Indian refiners scout alternative crude as Gulf route risks rise. War Economy & Demographics: Russia approved state-funded IVF for war widows, while EU sanctions also targeted figures tied to Russia’s military-industrial base.

EU Sanctions: The EU’s 21st package against Russia is now agreed, with Kaja Kallas saying it targets Russia’s financial system, military industry and energy sector, adds 218 people/entities, expands curbs on the shadow fleet, and keeps an oil price cap at $44.1 for a year while introducing an entry ban for Russian military personnel involved in the war. EU–Greece LNG Deal: Greece won a compromise that softens LNG transfer restrictions via a one-year exemption for transfers to third countries, after Athens blocked earlier drafts. Ukraine Aid: Ireland announced a €125 million 2026 support package for Ukraine, including €100 million for priority non-lethal military equipment and €25 million for restoring critical energy infrastructure ahead of winter. War on Commerce: Ukraine’s drone campaign is hitting Russia’s “Amazon” Wildberries again, with reports of warehouse damage that could affect roughly 8–10% of logistics capacity and raise rebuilding costs into the hundreds of millions. Russia Economy Pressure: Ukraine-linked intelligence says about 2,700 Russian travel companies shut in H1 2026, up over 52%, as demand falls and fuel/air travel disruptions bite. Monetary Policy: The ECB held interest rates steady while warning it’s watching the inflation impact of the Iran war and energy-price uncertainty.

Black Sea Shipping Pressure: Ukraine has demanded an emergency UN Security Council meeting on July 27 after Russian attacks on civilian cargo ships left “zero vessels” passing through the Ukrainian maritime corridor during peak harvest season, with Kyiv warning Russia is holding global food security hostage. Ukraine’s Deep Strikes on Russia’s Consumer Economy: Ukraine says it hit two more Wildberries warehouses in Krasnodar and Nevinnomyssk, targeting logistics hubs tied to drone components and equipment—raising pressure on Russia’s biggest online retailer and the small sellers who rely on it. US-Russia Diplomacy Signal: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to meet Sergey Lavrov in Manila on the sidelines of ASEAN talks, with Rubio expected to renew the prospect of US-brokered steps to end the war. Legal Fight Over $1.1B Arbitration: Russia is asking a US federal court to pause litigation tied to a $1.1 billion arbitral award, citing challenges to an arbitrator’s impartiality. Aviation Mystery: A Moscow airport executive linked to Yevgeny Prigozhin’s final flight has been found dead, with investigators treating it as suicide amid questions about what he knew. Energy & Trade Risk: Russia imposed nighttime shipping restrictions at Novorossiysk due to drone threats, underscoring how security moves are reshaping grain export flows.

EU Sanctions Deadlock: EU ambassadors are trying again to agree on the 21st Russia sanctions package, but member states are still fighting over carve-outs—especially a proposed ban on transporting Russian LNG to third countries, with Greece pushing back to protect shipping interests. Retail Under Fire: Ukraine’s drone campaign hit Wildberries warehouses again, injuring workers and raising fresh fears of supply-chain disruption and inflation pressure inside Russia. Domestic Banking Clampdown: Russia’s State Duma passed a bill restricting remote banking, property access and consular services for people convicted in absentia who live abroad, tightening financial and legal pressure on exiles. Crypto & Trade Controls: The EU package also targets banks and crypto firms used to route around restrictions, while Russia moves to expand crypto regulation at home. Ukraine Aid Finance: EU members approved the UK’s participation in a EUR 90B Ukraine support loan, including funding for UK-made defense supplies. Russia-Linked Finance Deal: Latvia’s leaders weighed the proposed sale of Baltic bank Luminor to Hungary’s OTP, pointing to ECB and Estonia’s role in approvals.

Crypto Regulation: Russia’s State Duma passed a landmark crypto market law, creating a framework for exchanges and intermediaries and setting an annual retail cap of about $3,800 per intermediary, with rules aimed at tightening oversight. EU Sanctions Deadlock: The EU delayed its 21st sanctions package over Greek objections to an LNG ban, with talks pushed to July 23 and a phased approach under discussion. Energy & Fuel Pressure: Russia is introducing a mechanism to curb diesel price spikes by compensating importers when domestic prices lag export levels, as Ukraine’s drone campaign keeps hitting refining and logistics. Maritime Risk for Trade: India protested after four Indian seafarers were killed in a Russian strike on the MV Golden Leo near Odesa, highlighting how attacks on merchant shipping are eroding norms and raising costs for global grain and oil routes. Asia Security: China and Russia held live-fire drills near Okinotori in Japan’s economic waters, prompting Tokyo protests and Beijing’s pushback over EEZ claims. Gold Demand Split: Schroders says central bank gold buying is set to keep rising as East/West demand dynamics return. Markets: Bitcoin ETFs logged $723M in inflows over five straight days, signaling renewed institutional appetite.

Energy & Trade Flows: Russia’s gas exports to Turkey via TurkStream and Blue Stream fell 4% in the first half, with total imports at 9.6 bcm through May, while Shipping Risk: the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb could see renewed tanker attacks as Houthis threaten a Saudi maritime embargo—raising fresh oil-price and route-stability worries for buyers including India and Russia. War’s Business Impact: Ukraine’s drone and missile campaign keeps hitting logistics and energy nodes, including Wildberries warehouses where Koton reported inventory damage and the Kremlin warned losses are spreading to small and medium firms. Sanctions & Finance: EU member states are pushing for carve-outs or exemptions in the next Russia sanctions package, with Greece demanding LNG shipping flexibility—showing widening resistance inside Brussels. Markets & Reserves: Russia’s central bank sold 43.5 tons of gold in six months as the federal deficit swelled, while the Duma advanced a bill to legalize nationwide crypto circulation under Bank of Russia oversight. Diplomacy & Fallout: India summoned a Russian diplomat after the MV Golden Leo strike killed four Indian sailors, and Russia said it’s in touch with New Delhi.

Black Sea Shipping Under Fire: A Russian missile strike on the Guinea-Bissau-flagged cargo ship Golden Leo near Odesa killed 10, including four Indian crew, underscoring how the war is disrupting civilian trade routes. Energy Infrastructure Risk: A drone attack hit an oil tanker loading at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Black Sea terminal near Novorossiysk, forcing a temporary suspension of loading and raising environmental and operational concerns. Food Prices Watch: Wheat futures jumped to two-year highs as Black Sea grain shipment disruptions continue, with analysts pointing to port and vessel attacks. Crypto & Finance Policy: Russia is moving toward tighter crypto rules, with a regulation bill heading to final State Duma readings and new steps aimed at curbing crypto fraud. Sanctions Pressure on Oil Buyers: US lawmakers are pushing a bill to impose up to 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil and gas, aiming to raise the cost of financing Russia’s war. Security & Cyber: US and allied agencies warn Russian state-linked hackers are exploiting weak routers to compromise critical infrastructure, targeting sectors from energy to healthcare. Geopolitics at Sea: Japan says Chinese and Russian warships carried out live-fire drills in Japan’s EEZ, adding to regional unease.

Wildberries Fallout: Ukrainian drone strikes hit two Wildberries warehouses (Elektrostal near Moscow and Kotovsk in Tambov), killing workers and risking RUB100bn+ losses for sellers and logistics operations. Sanctions Push: US lawmakers led by Adam Schiff and Lindsey Graham move to hold purchasers of Russian oil and gas accountable, with a bill gaining broad Senate support. Diplomacy & War Economy: Putin met North Korea’s foreign minister, thanking Pyongyang for backing the Ukraine war; Russia also plans Russia-Africa summit preparations with ambassadors. Markets Watch: The Moscow Exchange keeps sliding, with analysts citing geopolitical pressure, rate expectations, and weak business sentiment; some see a rebound only if oil stays firm. Telecom Buildout: Rostelecom says its fiber network has topped 1.1m km, covering over 80% of households in major cities. Policy Secrecy: Russia’s cabinet moved rules on foreign-capital transactions and asset redistribution into a closed format until 2029. Energy Prices: Europe’s gas market stays tight as prices near $700 per 1,000 cubic meters, with talk of possible Russian supply resumption facing political and infrastructure hurdles. Trade Snapshot (Georgia): Georgia’s Jan–Jun 2026 external trade rose 5.8% to $12.93bn; exports jumped 20% while imports edged up 0.7%, leaving a $5.17bn deficit.

Kyiv Under Ballistic Barrage: Russia hit Kyiv with a major ballistic missile and drone wave, killing at least one and injuring dozens, damaging homes, warehouses and metro areas while fires broke out across multiple districts. Maritime Shock to Trade: Ukraine says a Russian strike hit the Turkish-owned “Golden Leo” grain cargo ship near Odesa, killing six and leaving four missing, as Kyiv also reports strikes on Russian oil tankers and depots. EU Energy Supply Pressure: Denmark’s Fayard Shipyard faces fresh political backlash for servicing Russia-linked Arctic LNG tankers, with lawmakers warning it could prolong Kremlin gas revenues ahead of an EU embargo. Kazakhstan Condemns Attacks on Oil Exports: Astana says alleged drone attacks on civilian vessels using the Caspian Pipeline Consortium export route threaten its economic interests and global energy supplies. Ukraine Targets Russia’s “Shadow Fleet”: Kyiv’s maritime drone campaign continues to disrupt sanctioned oil shipments by striking vessels and related infrastructure across the Black Sea and beyond. Russia’s War Hits Consumer Goods: Ukrainian strikes are also blamed for damaging Russian online retail and logistics hubs, underscoring how supply chains and everyday commerce are getting pulled into the conflict.

Ukraine-Russia Energy War: Ukraine’s SSU hit three oil depots in Russia’s Stavropol Krai and struck a “shadow fleet” tanker in the Black Sea, while Zelensky said the attacks aim to disrupt fuel supplies and exports. Drone & Missile Escalation: Russia reported shooting down 140 Ukrainian drones overnight as Kyiv launched large-scale drone strikes that reportedly damaged Wildberries logistics sites near Moscow and an oil depot. Sanctions & Finance: The ECB signaled it may pause another rate hike as inflation cools, but uncertainty tied to the Hormuz situation keeps the door open for September. Cybercrime Crackdown: U.S. prosecutors unsealed an indictment against three Russian nationals and two bulletproof hosting firms tied to $62m+ in victim losses, with Rewards for Justice offering up to $10m. Trade & Industry: India’s aluminium makers urged higher duties on low-grade scrap imports, citing dumping pressure including from Russia and a surge in poor-quality Gulf/ASEAN scrap. North Korea Pivot: Pyongyang’s foreign minister met Lavrov in Moscow as analysts say North Korea is courting both China and Russia to boost leverage against the U.S. Wartime Manpower: Russia is expanding prisoner recruitment for the army by widening the list of crimes that won’t block signing military contracts.